"If you've been playing poker for a half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy" - Warren Buffet We've all spent time in large, recurring, intentionally important meetings. The type of meeting where you get together with other busy people to cross-functionally address
It's something every entrepreneur, investor, leader, or creator of remarkable things struggles with. If they don't, they're either lying to you, or to themselves. Is your judgement right? Or did you miss something in your blind spot? Your judgement was right, but you didn't persist. It's a mind-f*ck struggle.
When we set out to do anything we form a mental picture or "forecast" of what can be achieved with proper focus and execution. Forecasts, given their nature of predicting the future are often wrong. Ideally they're wrong in a favorable sense, where we exceed our aim. Obviously sometimes we
I get to live and work in Boulder, CO. Some have described Boulder as "25 square miles, surrounded by reality [https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/style/tmagazine/30boulder.html]", and I don't think it's all that far off. Boulder's a phenomenally beautiful place, quite literally surrounded by a
Values are a reflection of what you want your behaviors to be. Values are always aspirational, sometimes inspirational. Values are what you believe. Your beliefs + your behaviors = who you are. Collective beliefs + behaviors of a group = the culture of the group. I've worked in different companies and cultures. I've observed,
If we see things through probabilities & bets, we give ourselves a built-in opportunity to improve. Armed with this perspective, we can develop and then seek to improve our systems. Systems allow us to better evaluate probabilities, and place better bets. A revenue forecast, for example, (supported by existing customers, retention
Our nature is to compete. Especially among motivated and high-performing people competition is always “on”. Its tempting to value collaboration over competition, but I think that misses the point. One is a consequence and the other is a cause of being successful. [https://www.firstnamedotlastname.com/content/images/wordpress/2011/
What do sailing and running a business have in common?
Sailing isn’t all that hard. Sailing faster and more efficiently than anyone else when everyone has all the exact same equipment is really really hard! It turns out that sailing and running a business have a lot in common. 1. Boat size = company size [http://walterknapp.typepad.com/.a/
Smart people can ratf*ck you
Good intentions. Sage advice. Clever insights. All good and worthy goals of a conversation with a smart person, a successful person, an influential person. The problem lies in the clarity of what you want out of it and your perspective on the situation or issue. Smart people want (desperately) to
Can you reduce value to an algorithm? No.
[http://walterknapp.typepad.com/.a/6a00e54eff9e538833011278fcbb1f28a4-pi] Interesting article in the MIT Technology Review [http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/22197/page1/] about measuring the value of a company (startup) by measuring buzz metrics (Twitter activity, Techcrunch mentions, Blog posts, etc.). Similar to the YouNoodle [http://younoodle.com/] or KillerStartup [http://www.
Data: who's your daddy?
A pullback, slowdown, recession or whatever you want to call it, often exposes big opportunities for people and companies that are wise to the bigger picture. This is exactly what I think is going to happen in the world of online advertising data. The ad networks figured this out a